An industry note from Philip Shen, managing director, Roth Capital Partners, warned that the United States may soon face another ongoing tariff enforcement saga.
The note said that based on new regulations from the Department of Commerce, new antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) cases could be filed as soon as April 25.
AD/CVD laws assess tariffs on goods that are found to be dodging import duties by dumping products in other countries before shipping them to the U.S. In the previous AD/CVD proceeding, four Southeastern Asian countries, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia, which were responsible for roughly 80% of the U.S. supply of solar components, were alleged as potentially harboring dumped products from China.
Resulting tariffs of components found in violation ranged as high as 50% to 250% of the cost of shipped goods. The looming threat of tariffs led to high levels of risk and uncertainty in the market, and about 20% of utility-scale solar capacity was delayed or cancelled in the first half of 2022 due to this risk. In June 2022, President Biden placed a two year pause on new solar AD/CVD tariffs, which is set to expire this summer.
Roth said it remains “difficult to gauge” how high the tariffs could be in the new case later this month.
An industry contact told Roth that the petitions for AD/CVD cases will likely occur as soon as possible after the April 25 date, because petitioners “want AD/CVD preliminary decisions to be coming out during the heat of election season.”
Roth also noted that it is possible India will join the four Southeastern Asian nations in this round of AD/CVD investigation.
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Just another loop around the solar-coaster!